You can see here a very rough and ready decomposition of the forces (in blue arrows)on the auto-release cleat. I've split the force into the part acting towards the pivot, and the force acting around the pivot. What's important is the force acting in rotation around the pivot.
As you can see, if the line comes up to the cleat, the force available to pop the cleat open is much reduced. If the line comes down to the cleat, then you will end up with an auto-release cleat that may pop much more easily than you expect. A little trial and error goes a long long way.
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